Project3100
Steven Smith
4/27/2021
In this project, I wanted to look and see if 3-point percentages had increased over the years, as it seems volume certainly has. So I randomly selected 15 players who have played at least 8 seasons, have a 15-minute/game average for their careers and average at least 7.0 points per game. Random.org was used to generate the team to pull from, then again to select a player.
Just a quick look at player shooting per season
Red shows field goal attempts and green shows field goals made
A look into overall shooting finds no significance between the interaction of season, player and field goal attempts
## [1] 0.01729683## fg_percent ~ season * player * fga3-Point Shooting for all players over their seasons. We see a shooting volume increase, which help foment the hypothesis that the league might be shooting better from distance.
Red = 3-pointers attempted, green = 3-pointers made, and the blue line indicates 3-point %. For percentages 1 on the graph would = 100% shooting
Now for each player
Red = 3-pointers missed, green = 3-pointers made, and the blue line indicates 3-point %
3-Point percentages for players
0.1 is 10% and 0.5 Is 50% shooting
Analyzing interaction of season and player on 3-point percentages. Significance and residual
## x3p_percent ~ season * player## [1] 0.07207535Predictions of the above formala
Predictions in red and 3-point percentage is green
Now, analyzing interaction of season, player, and 3-pointers attempted on 3-point percentages. Significance and residual
## [1] 0.05862911##
## Call:
## glm(formula = x3p_percent ~ season * player * x3pa, data = Full_Data)
##
## Deviance Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -0.243148 -0.025831 0.001345 0.024033 0.248441
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 78.48329 20.62749 3.805 0.000218 ***
## season -0.03888 0.01023 -3.799 0.000222 ***
## playerBradley Beal -96.30801 116.69335 -0.825 0.410708
## playerChris Paul -101.03458 38.05986 -2.655 0.008932 **
## playerDamian Lillard -67.81600 105.67169 -0.642 0.522158
## playerDanilo Gallinari -40.83713 52.87266 -0.772 0.441299
## playerDeMar DeRozan -86.27952 28.36859 -3.041 0.002849 **
## playerGordon Hayward 80.64878 40.92651 1.971 0.050897 .
## playerIsh Smith -68.48368 30.24495 -2.264 0.025212 *
## playerJeff Teague -104.35748 32.94051 -3.168 0.001913 **
## playerJonas Valanciunas -347.11025 61.27221 -5.665 9.02e-08 ***
## playerKemba Walker -102.98089 97.96102 -1.051 0.295097
## playerNikola Vucevic -92.46990 41.60846 -2.222 0.027986 *
## playerRajon Rondo -95.96076 29.12070 -3.295 0.001267 **
## playerRicky Rubio -49.42765 101.79332 -0.486 0.628090
## playerTobias Harris -92.97690 51.25092 -1.814 0.071961 .
## x3pa 381.98977 201.13501 1.899 0.059758 .
## season:playerBradley Beal 0.04790 0.05791 0.827 0.409661
## season:playerChris Paul 0.05026 0.01890 2.659 0.008813 **
## season:playerDamian Lillard 0.03374 0.05236 0.644 0.520479
## season:playerDanilo Gallinari 0.02037 0.02628 0.775 0.439719
## season:playerDeMar DeRozan 0.04285 0.01408 3.044 0.002830 **
## season:playerGordon Hayward -0.04003 0.02032 -1.970 0.050927 .
## season:playerIsh Smith 0.03402 0.01502 2.265 0.025140 *
## season:playerJeff Teague 0.05189 0.01636 3.172 0.001887 **
## season:playerJonas Valanciunas 0.17232 0.03041 5.666 9.00e-08 ***
## season:playerKemba Walker 0.05116 0.04868 1.051 0.295238
## season:playerNikola Vucevic 0.04594 0.02066 2.224 0.027897 *
## season:playerRajon Rondo 0.04771 0.01447 3.298 0.001258 **
## season:playerRicky Rubio 0.02460 0.05053 0.487 0.627210
## season:playerTobias Harris 0.04622 0.02546 1.816 0.071739 .
## season:x3pa -0.18911 0.09962 -1.898 0.059874 .
## playerBradley Beal:x3pa -374.95488 202.10655 -1.855 0.065828 .
## playerChris Paul:x3pa -375.57450 201.39750 -1.865 0.064458 .
## playerDamian Lillard:x3pa -382.47189 201.75974 -1.896 0.060222 .
## playerDanilo Gallinari:x3pa -390.07932 201.33067 -1.938 0.054852 .
## playerDeMar DeRozan:x3pa -379.10819 201.71751 -1.879 0.062428 .
## playerGordon Hayward:x3pa -421.16052 201.40265 -2.091 0.038462 *
## playerIsh Smith:x3pa -376.04543 201.86243 -1.863 0.064736 .
## playerJeff Teague:x3pa -374.93642 201.60815 -1.860 0.065184 .
## playerJonas Valanciunas:x3pa -129.59884 214.97269 -0.603 0.547651
## playerKemba Walker:x3pa -376.76926 201.52225 -1.870 0.063787 .
## playerNikola Vucevic:x3pa -374.56593 201.69887 -1.857 0.065566 .
## playerRajon Rondo:x3pa -385.34820 201.51045 -1.912 0.058038 .
## playerRicky Rubio:x3pa -392.64531 204.83140 -1.917 0.057442 .
## playerTobias Harris:x3pa -382.29009 201.45610 -1.898 0.059962 .
## season:playerBradley Beal:x3pa 0.18562 0.10010 1.854 0.065959 .
## season:playerChris Paul:x3pa 0.18593 0.09975 1.864 0.064589 .
## season:playerDamian Lillard:x3pa 0.18935 0.09993 1.895 0.060331 .
## season:playerDanilo Gallinari:x3pa 0.19313 0.09972 1.937 0.054949 .
## season:playerDeMar DeRozan:x3pa 0.18770 0.09991 1.879 0.062526 .
## season:playerGordon Hayward:x3pa 0.20858 0.09975 2.091 0.038483 *
## season:playerIsh Smith:x3pa 0.18619 0.09998 1.862 0.064826 .
## season:playerJeff Teague:x3pa 0.18561 0.09986 1.859 0.065318 .
## season:playerJonas Valanciunas:x3pa 0.06389 0.10649 0.600 0.549554
## season:playerKemba Walker:x3pa 0.18653 0.09981 1.869 0.063905 .
## season:playerNikola Vucevic:x3pa 0.18544 0.09990 1.856 0.065677 .
## season:playerRajon Rondo:x3pa 0.19078 0.09981 1.911 0.058148 .
## season:playerRicky Rubio:x3pa 0.19440 0.10146 1.916 0.057544 .
## season:playerTobias Harris:x3pa 0.18927 0.09978 1.897 0.060070 .
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.005023852)
##
## Null deviance: 1.8386 on 189 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 0.6531 on 130 degrees of freedom
## (4 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: -416.68
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2This is the mod that displays great significance of our categories’ correlation to 3-point shooting and the mod shows good residuals compared to other categorical interactions. ‘Players’ shows a lot of significance, as well as certain seasons they played.
3-Point % vs season
Added trend line
3-point percentages and attempts per season
Red = 3-pointers attempted and blue shows the percentages for each season
Predictions using the above interacting formula
Added predictions = red and green shows 3-point % for each season
We see some upwards trends for specific players. Drummond’s volume is to low to really consider for making accurate predictions.
Predicting into the next 4 future seasons
We see some strong predictions
Interactions of player and minutes per game + season on 3-point %
## x3p_percent ~ player * mp + season## [1] 0.06984445This mod shows us significance
Minutes and 3-point % vs Seasons
Given a player shoots good or bad, I’d expect a gain or reduction in minutes.
We see minutes do have an effect 3-point %, but only for certain players. It appears that a consistently decent 3-point % might a good factor into what’s keeping the player playing more minutes. A guy like Andre Drummond, is a traditional big and earns minutes by other methods, but limits spearding the floor like a lot of teams like to do these days.
Interactions of player, position, and season on 3-point %
Another aspect to consider would be that of position. Primary ball-handlers, typicaly the guard, might see different kind of shots then say a center, who will likely only take open threes. But a center’s body type has typically, in the past, not seen them as finesse players with long distant shooting skills
## x3p_percent ~ player * pos * season## [1] 0.07164746